INTERNAL PREVIEW · Confidential · For client review only, not the final design.
Built For / Asset Managers

From planned IRR to a full distribution of outcomes.

PROMS Investor moves asset managers beyond scenario ranges to a genuine probability distribution, covering IRR volatility, lease event risk, exit valuation sensitivity and leverage impact from each lease upward.

Most relevant products

PROMS Investor · PROMS Enterprise

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The Problem → The Solution

A range of scenarios is not the same as a distribution of outcomes.

Each challenge is matched directly to the PROMS capability that addresses it.

Industry problemPROMS solution
01Planned IRR doesn't capture volatility.A single IRR, even with high and low cases, cannot tell you the probability of achieving your return target, the volatility of that return, or the tail risk you are carrying.
PROMS solutionStochastic simulation from the lease.Thousands of economic and property market scenarios combined with asset-level event risk. The output is a full probability distribution of IRR, cashflows, and valuations at every time step.
02Lease events are modelled as on/off scenarios.A lease break, a void period, or a tenant default is a probabilistic event correlated with the macro environment. Modelling it as binary misrepresents the risk profile of the asset.
PROMS solutionLease structuring as a risk decision.Compare competing tenants, terms and break clauses across the full distribution of outcomes, not just expected value. A government tenant at lower rent can offer superior risk-adjusted return over a 30-year horizon.
03Exit valuations ignore correlation.Exit value depends on yield movements, rental growth, occupancy, and lease structure, all of which are correlated. A single exit assumption ignores this entirely.
PROMS solutionEquivalent yield exit valuation.Exit valuations computed using equivalent yield methodology, with a DCF to stabilisation capitalised at the equivalent yield. All known lease facts are incorporated and indexed in every scenario to anchor future values to today's view of the asset.
Exit Valuation Sensitivity

Exit value outcomes across 10,000 scenarios

Each dot is one scenario, coloured by economic path. Exit yield is the dominant driver of dispersion.

EXIT YIELD EXIT VALUE (£M) 20 35 50 65 80 3.5% 4.5% 5.5% 6.5% 7.5% BASE £52M ACQN £48M Upside Base Stress Trend Acquisition price
IRR Sensitivity

What drives IRR / ranked by impact

Each bar shows IRR change when the assumption moves plus or minus one standard deviation from base. Exit yield is the dominant driver.

-3% -2% -1% BASE +1% +2% +3% IRR CHANGE FROM BASE Exit yield -2.8% +2.8% Rental growth -1.9% +1.9% Void period -1.4% +1.4% Cap value index -1.1% +1.1% Lease break prob. -0.8% +0.8% TI / LC -0.5% +0.5% Discount rate -0.3% Downside (−1σ) Upside (+1σ)
Relevant Products

Built for asset managers.

Portfolio risk & return simulation

PROMS Investor

Stochastic simulation from each lease upward. Full probability distributions of IRR, cashflows and valuations at every time step.

Explore PROMS Investor →Asset cashflow & reporting

PROMS Enterprise

Cashflow forecasting, DCF, and asset reporting. The institutional engine without the stochastic layer.

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See PROMS Investor on your portfolio.

A walkthrough calibrated to your asset types and reporting cycle.

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