Research, reports and commentary from PROMS.AI.
A working archive of institutional CRE analytics thinking: methodology, market views, case studies and research from the PROMS.AI team and the wider Radley Associates network.
A practical approach to understanding CRE portfolio risk, diversification, and the impact of leverage.
A Radley Associates / OPTrust case study, originally published in PREA Quarterly. 10,000-scenario Monte Carlo simulation across a Canadian CRE portfolio quantifies diversification benefit, isolates the impact of leverage, and challenges Sharpe ratios as the go-to risk metric.
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How AI is changing CRE deal screening in 2026.
Why the bottleneck has always been the same: unstructured data locked inside PDFs, and what changes when AI lifts it.
Co-developing PROMS Enquiry with institutional acquisition teams.
How three institutional CRE acquisition teams co-developed PROMS Enquiry from a methodology engine into a deal-screening product. From broker pack to institutional underwriting in minutes, and the workflow lessons learned along the way.
IFRS 9 staging across a £4bn CRE lending book.
A European specialist lender replaced a spreadsheet-based ECL process with PROMS Lender. Outcome: a single engine for collateral valuation, PD, LGD and Basel II reporting, with full auditor tieout and quarter-on-quarter variance attribution.
Portfolio risk-return optimisation for a $2.1bn diversified CRE fund.
A North American fund manager used PROMS Investor to move from planned IRR reporting to a full probability distribution of portfolio outcomes, including marginal contribution analysis identifying the assets to sell and the risk-adjusted reallocations to pursue.
Why traditional single-point DCF forecasts fail institutional CRE investors.
The single-point DCF assumes risk can be captured by adjusting one or two inputs and applying a percentage reduction for a worst case. Real-world risks do not arrive one at a time - they come in correlated waves. This paper sets out why institutional investors need probability distributions, not point estimates, and how stochastic cash-flow simulation captures the compounding chain-reactions a three-case sensitivity cannot.
Commercial real estate loan risk modelling - selecting the right methodology.
A review of the main approaches to CRE loan risk assessment. Traditional regression and scorecard models can only describe how loans behaved in the last downturn - and future crises differ materially. Cash-flow simulation explicitly incorporates macroeconomic uncertainty, producing forward-looking PD, LGD and EL estimates that hold up under regulatory scrutiny.
Increasing commercial real estate funds' asset allocation.
US defined benefit pension funds allocate just over 9% to CRE. Defined contribution plans allocate 10.8%. This paper looks at why CRE allocations are still constrained, what better risk-versus-return information would unlock, and where CRE belongs in a diversified institutional portfolio relative to equities, government bonds and private credit.
Using data and analytics to gain a competitive edge in commercial real estate.
A two-part framework for modern CRE decision-making: (1) Scenario Forecasting, to identify strategic opportunities and disruptions, and (2) Asset and Portfolio Forecasting, to test those opportunities on a consistent, risk-adjusted basis. Originally written for PREA.
A Practical Approach to Understanding CRE Portfolio Risk, Diversification, and the Impact of Leverage: A Case Study.
A Radley Associates / OPTrust case study, originally published in PREA Quarterly. Using a 10,000-scenario Monte Carlo simulation across OPTrust's Canadian CRE portfolio, the authors quantify the diversification benefit, isolate the impact of leverage, and challenge the use of the Sharpe ratio as the go-to risk metric for CRE investors.
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